U.S. Officials Warn of Arms Race in Orbit as Adversaries Test Space Weapons

Welcome to this week’s Intelligence Brief newsletter… in recent days, U.S. military officials have sounded alarms over growing threats in space as Russia and China rapidly develop space weapons, including potential anti-satellite and nuclear capabilities. In our analysis this week, we’ll be looking at 1) why U.S. Space Force leaders are calling for the deployment of space-based interceptors and weapon systems to deter conflict and maintain superiority, 2) how recent satellite maneuvers and weapons tests by U.S. adversaries underscore fears of an emerging arms race in orbit, and 3) why officials now view space as an active warfighting domain requiring credible kinetic and non-kinetic defenses.

Quote of the Week

“It’s time that we can clearly say that we need space fires and we need weapon systems.”

– Gen. Stephen N. Whiting, U.S. Space Force

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U.S. Officials Are Concerned Over Adversaries’ space Weapons

U.S. officials are expressing concern about aggressive efforts by adversary nations to develop offensive capabilities in space, with a potential arms race in orbit looming that could present new challenges for U.S. satellites and military assets.

Speaking this week at the Space Symposium in Colorado Springs, U.S. Space Force (USSF) Gen. Stephen Whiting said America has reached a “time that we can clearly say that we need space fires and we need weapon systems.”

“We need orbital interceptors,” Whiting said at the event. “And what do we call these? We call these weapons, and we need them to deter a space conflict and to be successful if we end up in such a fight.”

In recent weeks, maneuvers undertaken by China and Russia have heightened concerns about the prospect of space becoming a future battleground, with U.S. Space Force intelligence suggesting that both nations have undertaken training for combat scenarios in orbit.

The training includes potential satellite attack drills, as well as co-orbital weapons systems exercises. Additionally, some information pointing to the possibility of experiments with new anti-satellite technologies—potentially capable of crippling American strategic defense systems—has also been discussed.

Attack and Defend Maneuvers

Last month, one U.S. official told CNN that Russian satellites were believed to be engaged in attack and defend maneuvers, displaying capabilities that are of growing concern to the Pentagon.

The concerning revelation comes amid ongoing suspicions that Russia is pursuing the placement of an anti-satellite nuclear weapon in space. Last year, it was learned that a Russian satellite, Cosmos 2553, is operating in a rare, high-altitude low Earth orbit (LEO). Two of the most likely reasons for the satellite’s unusual position in orbit include surveillance using synthetic aperture radar (SAR), or the potential use in testing deployment strategies for a future orbital nuclear weapon.

The satellite, launched in February 2022, orbits at an altitude that places it largely out of the way of other active spacecraft—an uncongested orbit that may provide an ideal proving ground for experiments free of U.S. interference or detection. The satellite’s orbital position may also serve a strategic purpose, which would be ideally suited for any spacecraft housing a potentially hazardous payload that its operators would want to keep out of the way of potential collision risks.

Despite Cosmos 2553’s careful placement in orbit, the U.S. defense official who spoke with CNN in March warned that “Russia wants to take away our advantages in space,” adding that Moscow “[doesn’t] care about collateral damage.”

Speaking last month at the Air & Space Forces Association Warfare Symposium, USSF Gen. Chance Saltzman also expressed concerns over reports of Russia’s purported tests involving orbital nuclear weapons.

“We must simultaneously be ready to defend American spacepower as well as to protect our forces against hostile spacepower,” Saltzman said at the event.

Moscow’s Space Warfare Capabilities

Concerns involving Moscow’s intentions in space are nothing new. Four years ago, a test involving a Russian anti-satellite missile destroyed one of the country’s defunct satellites, resulting in dangerous debris that added to the growing amount of clutter in Earth orbit. It was also revealed in 2023 that Moscow’s efforts to build a space-based electromagnetic pulse (EMP) weapon capable of disabling vast numbers of orbital satellites.

Along with Russia’s pursuit of orbital weapons, China has displayed similar ambitions. Last December, Chinese satellites performed a series of close-proximity maneuvers using “advanced patrols and attack approaches” based on U.S. assessments, indicating their ability to physically strike and potentially disable nearby satellites.

China Makes Surprising Leaps with space weapons

China’s leap in space capabilities may have caught many in the U.S. by surprise, although like Russia’s progress in recent years, it isn’t new. As of late 2024, China reportedly had over 1,060 satellites in orbit, placing it second only to the United States. Last year, the country conducted 66 successful launches last year that carried 67 intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) satellites into orbit.

Like the U.S., Beijing views space as critical for ensuring battlefield dominance according to China’s military doctrine. Presently, the U.S. Space Force is prioritizing developing defensive and offensive capabilities to deter or counter a surprise attack—what officials warn could amount to a “blitzkrieg” in space.

U.S. Still in the Lead… And Hopes to Stay There

Despite such concerning scenarios, officials maintain that the U.S. retains an advantage in space. While a fair degree of the recent saber rattling over space warfare capabilities aims to drive concerns that will likely bolster future budgets, China and Russia are indeed rapidly closing the gap on the U.S. and its orbital capabilities.

Despite being signatories of the 1967 Outer Space Treaty—which prohibits placing weapons of mass destruction in orbit—Russia and China’s recent behavior also signals a shift away from diplomatic restraint. Namely, Russia’s veto of a 2024 UN resolution reaffirming the treaty’s principles only helped to deepen international concerns that the agreement is becoming obsolete.

“Weapons in space used to be considered inconceivable, but now space-based interceptors are a key component of how we win,” General Whiting said at the Space Symposium in Colorado this week.

“We are a combatant command, and like all other combatant commands, we must be dominant at warfighting and war winning,” he added. “Dominant warfighting in space requires credible, acknowledged, kinetic and non-kinetic capabilities, fires and weapons.”

That concludes this week’s installment of The Intelligence Brief. You can read past editions of our newsletter at our website, or if you found this installment online, don’t forget to subscribe and get future email editions from us here. Also, if you have a tip or other information you’d like to send along directly to me, you can email me at micah [@] thedebrief [dot] org, or reach me on X: @MicahHanks.

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